长期天气预报中有关预报因子的若干探讨   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

向元珍  曾九芳 《海洋预报》1995,12(2):1-11

目前行之有效的长期天气预报方法都是数理统计方法。本文以江淮流域夏季旱涝的长期预报为例，对有关预报因子的几个问题作了探索。挑选有实际天气学意义、各自独立、单相关系数较高的物理因子作预报因子，更有利于提高预报准确率，预报因子的时间尺度以月、季平均值最为适宜，而以三个旬滑动平均值的效果最佳，建立各种预报量的初选、精选因子库，更适用于计算机技术制作长期预报。  相似文献   

Regeneration of sand waves after dredging   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

M. A. F. Knaapen  S. J. M. H. Hulscher 《Coastal Engineering》2002,46(4):1096

Sand waves are large bed waves on the seabed, being a few metres high and lying hundreds of metres apart. In some cases, these sand waves occur in navigation channels. If these sand waves reduce the water depth to an unacceptable level and hinder navigation, they need to be dredged. It has been observed in the Bisanseto Channel in Japan that the sand waves tend to regain their shape after dredging. In this paper, we address modelling of this regeneration of sand waves, aiming to predict this process. For this purpose, we combine a very simple, yet effective, amplitude-evolution model based on the Landau equation, with measurements in the Bisanseto Channel. The model parameters are tuned to the measured data using a genetic algorithm, a stochastic optimization routine. The results are good. The tuned model accurately reproduces the measured growth of the sand waves. The differences between the measured weave heights and the model results are smaller than the measurement noise. Furthermore, the resulting parameters are surprisingly consistent, given the large variations in the sediment characteristics, the water depth and the flow field. This approach was tested on its predictive capacity using a synthetic test case. The model was tuned based on constructed predredging data and the amplitude evolution as measured for over 2 years. After tuning, the predictions were accurate for about 10 years. Thus, it is shown that the approach could be a useful tool in the optimization of dredging strategies in case of dredging of sand waves.  相似文献   

夏季长江冲淡水转向机制分析   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

廖启煜  郭炳火  刘赞沛 《海洋科学进展》2001,19(3):19-25

利用 1 95 9,1 975 - 1 982年及 1 998年夏季各月黄、东海盐度分布和相应风场资料 ,分析讨论了长江冲淡水夏季的扩展路径。指出 :除海底坡降外 ,由 S向的苏北沿岸流和 N,NE向的浙东沿岸流及台湾暖流构成的“力偶”,是使冲淡水向左扭转的重要外力之一。用近岸均质模型和远岸双层模型的涡度方程定性讨论了冲淡水的转向机制  相似文献   

任意曲线曲面上重磁位场转换的B样条函数法     

姜效典  王硕儒 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》1991,(3)

提出用B样条函数求解曲线、曲面上重磁位场的向上延拓,水平、垂向导数计算,磁异常分量互换的方法。该方法的特点是:原理简明,程序通用性强,计算精度高。  相似文献   

底部边界层颗粒态物质迁移特征的放射性核素分析方法     

李炎  G.W.Berger 《海洋科学》1992,16(4):66-68

利用颗粒态放射性核素携带的颗粒物历经过程信息,我们提出用泥沙扩散方程和颗粒态放射性核素扩散方程联解底部边界层颗粒态物质迁移参数的方法。分析实例的样品取自荷兰Waden Sea南部Balgzand潮滩(砂坪)和Mok湾潮滩(泥坪)的两个站位(BG1和Mok2)。示踪核素为~(234)Th,~(210)Pb和~(137)Cs,其放射性比度由r能谱测出。  相似文献   

Mathematical Models for Combined Refraction-Diffraction of Waves on Non-Uniform Current and Depth   总被引：12，自引：2，他引：12  

Hong Guangwen Professor  Research Institute of Coastal  Ocean Engineering  Hohai University  Xikang Road  Nanjing 《中国海洋工程》1996,(4)

Two mathematical models for combined refraction-diffraction of regular and irregular waves on non-uniform current in water of slowly varying topography are presented in this paper. Model I is derived by wave theory and variational principle separately. It has two kinds of expressions including the dissipation term. Model n is based on the energy conservation equation with energy flux through the wave crest lines in orthogonal curvilinear coordinates and the wave kinematic conservation equation. The analysis and comparison and special cases of these two models are also given.  相似文献   

In situ and satellite observations of the eastward migration of the Western Alboran Sea Gyre     

M.M. Flexas  D. Gomis  S. Ruiz  A. Pascual  P. Len 《Progress in Oceanography》2006,70(2-4):486

During October 2003 an intensive oceanographic survey (BIOMEGA) was carried out in the Alboran Sea, coinciding with a migration event of the Western Alboran Sea Gyre (WAG). The observations gathered during that cruise constitute the first field evidence of a migrated stage of the WAG. In this work we present the main differences between the 3D hydrodynamic fields observed during BIOMEGA and those corresponding to a WAG located at its usual position. The migration of the gyre was followed by satellite (altimetry and sea surface temperature) imagery. The causes of the gyre migration are explored in terms of the quasi-geostrophic tendency equation, in particular of the dynamics governing scales larger than the Rossby radius of deformation. It is shown that the steady state gyre must be almost equivalent barotropic and that the key process to break down the stationarity would be a density advection at gyre scale. The mechanisms to explain the migration of the WAG proposed by previous authors are discussed in light of the explanation proposed in this work.  相似文献   

山东省大中型水库水化学性状研究──几种主要水化因子的变化及其在评价水库鱼产力中的作用     

刘新  李德尚  李静 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》1994,(4)

本文通过对山东省３８座代表性大、中型水库总氮（ＴＮ）、总磷（ＴＰ）、化学耗氧量、硬度及电导率（λ）五种主要水化因子连续两年（１９８９～１９９０）的调查与研究，探讨了水化因子与水库鱼产力的关系。用反映鲢、鳙生长状况的综合生长指数（ＧＩ）作为水库鱼产力的指标。它与水化因子相关分析表明，总磷是山东省３８座水库鱼产力的主要影响因子。提出ＧＩ与总磷、总氮及电导率等水化因子的逐步回归方程关系非常显著。证明利用水化因子作为水库鱼产力的评价指标是可行的。并指出：同一水库的相同水化因子存在年间差异，其主要原因在于降雨量和水库进水量的不同，鉴于此．同一水库鱼产力也存在年间差异。  相似文献   

成都地区大气平均温度建模及其在GPS/PWV计算中的应用研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

吕弋培  殷海涛  黄丁发  王续本 《测绘科学》2008,33(4)

地基GPS气象学的关键技术是在于通过垂直方向上GPS信号的湿分量延迟值来确定大气可降水量-PWV,而这两个物理量间进行转换时需要用到一个关键性的参数——大气加权平均温度。本文首先讨论了估算加权平均温度的几种方法,然后利用成都地区2005年全年的大气探空数据,采用回归分析方法,建立了适合成都地区的大气加权平均温度模型,精度为±2.21K。最后将该公式应用到成都地区PWV的计算中,得到了非常理想的效果。  相似文献   

三种电离层延迟多频修正算法的比较   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王梦丽  王飞雪 《测绘科学》2008,33(4)

电离层延迟多频修正算法在修正电离层延迟的同时会放大观测噪声等伪距误差的影响。分析了电离层延迟双频修正、三频一阶修正和三频二阶修正三种修正算法及观测噪声的影响。以Galileo系统的四个载波频率为例,对不同频率组合下三种修正算法进行了比较。结果表明电离层延迟多频修正中,并不是观测量的频点数越多或修正掉的高阶项越多修正精度越高,还与观测伪距噪声的大小以及采用的修正方法有关。为多频测距系统的电离层延迟修正算法和最佳频率组合设计提供了一种可行的分析方法。  相似文献